Global Automotive Scenarios

The Global Automotive Scenarios Service, launched in 2013,  is a quarterly review which assesses the impact of a range of plausible shocks to the global macroeconomic landscape, and the resulting effects on Light Vehicle sales and production over the coming years. This service provides a means for decision makers within the automotive industry to remain informed about potential risks in the face of a constantly changing global economy.

The Essentials

Each quarter, key scenarios are identified and explored by Oxford Economics based on relevant risks to both global and regional economies — these form the foundation of this service. Based on them, LMC Automotive quantifies the potential impact on global and regional baseline vehicle forecasts. The resulting scenarios, and their global impacts, are discussed with reference to adjusted Light Vehicle sales and production forecasts in the context of alternative macroeconomic outlooks.

The aim of the service is to provide decision makers reliant on the automotive industry with the information to make important judgements in the content of persistent uncertainty.

Highlights Include:

  • Analysis from Oxford Economics of the global macroeconomic climate in the face of a number potential disruptions. In each quarterly update, the range of scenarios evolves to reflect the most relevant global risks and opportunities.
  • A thorough examination of the respective outcomes of these shocks, including:
    • scenario probabilities;
    • alternate GDP growth forecasts.
  • Effects of these disruptions on the future state of the Light Vehicle industry, including:
    • adjusted sales and production forecasts;
    • analysis of key impacts;
    • alternative medium-term outlooks.